Commentary, 7/8 2004

Past Imperfect

In fifty or even a hundred year’s time, what will economic historians make of the oil and gas industry in the early years of the 21st century? We in 2004 can easily look back over our recent past and note the extremely low oil prices of 1998-99. We can track the changes in those prices up to today’s record-breaking highs. But when those historians look back at 2004, what will they make of us? Will the markets’ group-think that often leans towards panic be seen as legitimate response to today’s events or as a kind of hysteria? It seems likely that some historians may consider this year as a pivotal time, a time that marks the beginning of a new era.